By Dr. Nidal Shoukeir
Professor of Strategic Communications and Governmental Relations
For more than a century, the Gulf states have undergone a remarkable transformation. In just a few decades, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh have emerged as global cities, symbols of modernity, openness and economic diversification. Beyond their energy resources, these cities embody a model built on investment, human development and dialogue between cultures. Their achievements are all the more remarkable given that they have taken shape in one of the world’s most volatile geopolitical environments.
Today, this model faces a major test. The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has exposed the Gulf to significant security, economic and strategic risks. It has brought a fundamental question back to the forefront: who can truly guarantee the security of a region so vital to global stability?
Link to The war reopens the question of Gulf security The war reopens the question of Gulf security
Since the conflict began, the Gulf states have found themselves at the centre of a confrontation they did not seek and repeatedly tried to prevent, mindful of the consequences for the region and the wider world. Despite their efforts to promote dialogue and de-escalation, they now face threats that challenge both their security and their development ambitions.
For decades, Gulf security has relied heavily on the strategic partnership with the United States, the principal military ally of most countries in the region. This relationship grew stronger after the 1991 Gulf War, underpinned by the American military presence, defence agreements and strategic installations, including the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Washington consequently became a central pillar of the regional security architecture.
Yet today’s threats and growing strategic uncertainty have exposed the limits of this arrangement. The American role remains essential, but it is not, by itself, sufficient to guarantee the stability the region needs. The question is therefore unavoidable: who can truly guarantee the security of the Gulf?
Link to Gulf security: a shared international and regional responsibility Gulf security: a shared international and regional responsibility
Answering this question requires recognising that Gulf security is no longer merely a regional concern. It is closely intertwined with the global economy, energy security and the stability of international markets. Any disruption in this strategically vital region can have consequences far beyond its borders.
The United States has a primary responsibility in this regard, but so do other major international actors, including the European Union, China and Russia. The international community must help prevent further escalation and support efforts to safeguard regional stability. Protecting the Gulf means not only defending the interests of its states, but also preserving a development model whose significance extends well beyond the region.
Yet international responsibility cannot replace the responsibility of the Gulf states themselves. More than five decades ago, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the founding father of the United Arab Emirates, declared that “the people of the Gulf have always been the guardians of the Gulf”. His words carry renewed significance today. The region’s security cannot be left entirely at the mercy of shifting international dynamics or the strategic calculations of external powers.
Attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, following those affecting the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and even Oman, have underscored a fundamental reality: the security of the Gulf states is indivisible. A threat against one country cannot be treated as an isolated national matter; it affects the stability of the region as a whole.
Solidarity among the members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) can no longer rest on declarations of principle or appeals to shared history and brotherhood. It must become a strategic imperative, underpinned by stronger political, security and defence co-ordination, as well as practical mechanisms capable of turning common interests into an effective collective response.
Link to Saudi-Emirati rapprochement: a strategic opportunity Saudi-Emirati rapprochement: a strategic opportunity
In this context, the call by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, to reinvigorate Gulf co-operation, particularly in security and defence, carries particular weight. His message is clear: the security of Saudi Arabia is inseparable from that of the UAE and every other Gulf state. This principle offers a solid foundation for building a more coherent and effective regional security framework.
The Gulf states possess considerable economic resources, significant military capabilities and extensive international partnerships. Yet these assets can deliver their full potential only if they are matched by solidarity, a willingness to overcome differences and the political resolve to put shared strategic interests first.
Against this backdrop, closer ties between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi represent an important opportunity to strengthen collective Gulf action. The recent visit of the Saudi Minister of Defence to Abu Dhabi highlights the importance of dialogue and co-ordination between the two countries at a time when security challenges demand a common outlook and closer consultation.
Given their political and strategic weight, greater convergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help reinvigorate co-operation across the GCC. The challenge is to turn this rapprochement into practical initiatives and a lasting commitment to collective security.
As a popular saying goes, individual fingers may be fragile, but together they form a fist. The image captures the Gulf’s challenge today: to transform the individual capabilities of its states into a collective strength capable of protecting their achievements and confronting shared threats.
Gulf security begins with the determination of its people and leaders. It is strengthened by solidarity among its states and their ability to act together. International partnerships remain indispensable, but no external power can replace genuine regional cohesion.
Ultimately, the Gulf’s future security will depend on its ability to combine international co-operation with a stronger sense of collective responsibility. Only then can the region safeguard its development model and continue towards a future that is more secure, stable and prosperous.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved