El Niño is gaining strength and may become one of the most powerful events in recent decades. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized UN agency for meteorology and climate, has issued a warning that the phenomenon is expected to intensify further in the coming months, reaching its peak in December 2026. Forecasts also suggest it will persist until February 2027, potentially impacting temperatures and precipitation patterns across many regions worldwide.
According to the latest climate update from the organization, surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean could reach record levels between October and December 2026. This anomaly could affect global atmospheric circulation, altering weather patterns and impacting economic activities, ecosystems, and vulnerable communities.
The El Niño phenomenon is associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is a major natural cause of climate variability. Its effects can be felt far from its origin, influencing temperatures and rainfall patterns. In some areas, it can lead to prolonged droughts, while in others, it increases the likelihood of intense rainfall and flooding.
Experts are particularly concerned about the potential overlap between a strong El Niño event and human-induced global warming. The interaction between these two phenomena could exacerbate the thermal anomalies observed in recent years, further raising average temperatures in various parts of the world.
"El Niño will continue to strengthen as it approaches its expected peak in December," the WMO stated in its monthly update, indicating the possibility of above-average temperatures across much of the planet and significant changes in precipitation distribution.
The organization's director, Celeste Saulo, emphasized that the phenomenon is now fully developed and rapidly intensifying. According to the agency's estimates, there is nearly a 100% chance it will persist until February 2027, and its intensity could place it among the most significant events recorded since at least 1950.
The impacts, however, will not be uniform. El Niño can produce very different effects depending on the region and season, making it crucial to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Seasonal forecasts are therefore essential tools to help the most exposed countries prepare for potential water, agricultural, and meteorological emergencies.
The coming months will be crucial in assessing the true scale of the event, while the scientific community remains focused on the interaction between natural climate variability and an increasingly pronounced global warming trend.
(Associated Medias) - Tutti i diritti sono riservati