The global economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of recent crises, yet its ability to withstand new shocks is diminishing. This is the assessment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled during meetings in Bangkok.
Despite a series of economic and geopolitical crises, culminating in the Middle East conflict and subsequent energy market tensions, global growth has remained steady. However, the IMF warns that this adaptability might soon be tested again.
In the report's introduction, Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro notes that the global economy has endured an exceptional series of shocks but cautions that this resilience is under strain and may not suffice against future disruptions.
This warning comes amid fragile energy balances, limited economic policy options, and uncertainties surrounding international tensions.
Link to AI and Energy Restructuring Fuel GrowthAI and Energy Restructuring Fuel Growth
The IMF highlights two key factors that have helped mitigate recent crises: the reorganization of energy supply chains and increased investments in artificial intelligence.
Adjustments in energy trade routes have enabled many economies to adapt to supply challenges, partially offsetting the impacts of disruptions.
Simultaneously, investments in AI development have been a significant driver of economic activity, boosting demand for technological infrastructure, production capacity, and advanced services.
These elements have kept the global economy moving despite unfavorable international conditions. However, the IMF warns that these factors may not provide sufficient protection against new crises.
Energy reserves are gradually depleting, and further geopolitical tensions could lead to price hikes and supply disruptions, affecting inflation and production.
Link to High Debt and Limited Central Bank OptionsHigh Debt and Limited Central Bank Options
The international landscape is further complicated by public finance issues. High debt levels in many countries limit governments' ability to implement new economic support measures if further shocks occur.
The need to control debt restricts the scope for expansive fiscal policies, just when households and businesses might require assistance to cope with potential price increases.
Central banks also face tough choices. The risk of renewed inflationary pressures necessitates a focus on price stability, limiting the ability to support growth through more accommodative monetary policy. This creates a particularly delicate balance where the global economy continues to grow but with potentially less effective response tools than in the past.
Link to Italy's Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 Raised by IMFItaly's Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 Raised by IMF
Amid international uncertainties, the IMF has upgraded Italy's economic outlook. For 2026, GDP growth is now projected at 0.8%, an improvement of three-tenths of a percentage point from the 0.5% forecast in July.
The positive revision extends to 2027, with the IMF predicting a 0.6% GDP increase, up by one-tenth from the previous assessment. These new forecasts suggest a better-than-expected trajectory, although they confirm a modest expansion pace.
Despite the improved forecasts, Italy's structural economic challenges and vulnerability to energy price fluctuations remain. Energy, in particular, is identified as a major risk factor by the IMF, especially for economies heavily affected by supply cost variations.
Link to Italian Inflation at 3.3% in 2026, Above Eurozone AverageItalian Inflation at 3.3% in 2026, Above Eurozone Average
Alongside the positive GDP revision, the World Economic Outlook presents a less favorable inflation scenario. According to new forecasts, Italy's average inflation will reach 3.3% in 2026, surpassing the Eurozone average of 3.1%.
For 2027, the IMF expects a slowdown to 2.8%, aligning with the Eurozone average.
This reflects the impact of energy tensions linked to the Middle East conflict, which have fueled price pressures in many economies.
Among major Eurozone countries, only Spain is projected to have higher inflation than Italy in 2026. The IMF forecasts Spain's inflation at 3.7% in 2026, dropping to 2.7% in 2027. In Germany, the trend differs, with inflation moving from 2.7% this year to 3.1% in 2027.
France is expected to experience more contained inflationary pressures, with rates of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% the following year. In contrast, the immediate impact of the energy crisis in the United States is anticipated to be significant, with inflation estimated at 3.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
(Associated Medias) - Tutti i diritti sono riservati